A new Rasmussen Reports poll smashed any GOP hope of picking up a US Senate, despite their possibilities of losing up to 5 seats. Louisiana makes the best opportunity for the GOP, given the makeup of the state, the registration advantage, and the fact that it is and has been a traditional GOP stronghold. That being said, given the post-Katrina situation and the redness of the state, the GOP thought their best opportunity was taking out Louisiana Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu.

Landrieu is looking safer and safer as November approaches. In fact, this poll will be enough to catapault our 4 poll running figure in our Senate projector to move this seat from LEAN DEM to SAFE DEM (just give me a bit of time here to update it).

Latest numbers:

Senator Mary Landrieu: 53%

GOP John Kennedy: 37%

Help Senator Landrieu keep this advantage building. Contribute online.

If the Senate DEMs had any concerns, they would have been Landrieu or New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg.  But, those concerns are looking more like false hopes as both races are beginning to widen toward the DEMs.  The latest poll from New jersey has Lautenberg lead the GOP challenger 53% to 38%.  Meanwhile, according to more recent polling, Kay Hagen in North Carolina and Jeff Merkley in Oregon, both of who were seen as slipping, appear to be once again closing and putting both those seats in the eyes of the Senate DEMs as tremendously huge targets.

A little bit of mounting speculation combined with some little piece of evidence point to Barack Obama choosing Del Senator Joe Biden as his running mate. According to Mark Halperin at Time, an email was sent out to Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff asking to update all staff contact information. I am not sold completely that this is a sign, we do that once per year here in Harrisburg, it’s just part of the office protocol to ensure senior staff has appropriate contact information to reach other staffers. Curiosity centers around the

timing.

Howard Fineman seems pretty certain that Biden is the choice.

My bottom line is this: Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, the choice is likely to be Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee . . .Said another, “Barack is moving toward a seasoned Beltway type, and that probably means Biden.  And a source personally close to Obama simply said “Biden makes the most sense.”

Finally, Ben Smith confirms it.

The general outline: Each participant picks three names and ranks them. Each has to include one wild-card — that is, someone other than Bayh, Biden and Kaine. Half of the pot will go to those who chose right with their first choice; 30% to those who got it with their second; and 20% to those who got it with their third.

Biden’s way up in the pool, I’m told.

So there you have it.  Betting pools have Biden as the choice, so be it.

Via CNN

As a fellow Pennsylvania democrat, this is completely and utterly embarrassing to my state.  I can only assume that Rendell realizes now his hopes for a position in the Obama Administration are gone, perhaps that is why he plans to vote for Clinton.

As a Pennsylvania Democrat, thanks alot Ed!

Four more polls released today, only 1 in a Battleground State.  So let’s get to it.

First up we have thew sweet state of Georgia and a poll from Rasmussen

Obama 43 McCain 50 Undecided/other 7 McCain +7

While some of the traditionallyred state Obama was doing well in a month ago have started to go toward McCain, this one is actually holding ground if not getting closer.  It will remain Lean Mccain in our Presidential Projector but we will be watching it closely.

Next we have the home state of Barack Obama, Illinois, and a poll from Rasmussen

Obama 53 McCain 38 Undecided/other 9 Obama +15

This will remain Strong Obama in our Presidential Projector, and in related news grass is green and the sky is blue.

And the Empire State, New York, is in with a poll from Sienna

Obama 47 McCain 39 Undecided/other 14 Obama +8

This is most certainly an outlier as 2 other polls this month ae showing 20 point leads for Obama.  this will remain Strong Obama in our Presidential Projector.

Last we have Tennesee and a poll from Ayes McHenry

Obama 36 McCain 51 Undecided/other 13 McCain +15

I wonderif the volunteer state wll volunteer to pay off the massive National debt and never ending war a McCain presidency will bring,  I don’t think so but yet they remain Strong McCain in our Presidential Projector.

That is it for today.  Keep checking in for your Daily State Poll Fix and keep checking our Elections Projections Database for all the from around the web.

The New York Times reports that Senator Barack Obama is set with his choice as his vice presidential running mate and will begin the rollout process on Wednesday.

Senator Barack Obama has all but finalized his choice for a running mate and set an elaborate roll-out plan for his decision, beginning with an early morning alert to supporters, perhaps as soon as Wednesday, followed by a trip to swing states by the new Democratic ticket, aides said.

Mr. Obama’s deliberations remain remarkably closely held. Aides said perhaps a half-dozen advisers were involved in the final discussions in an effort to enforce a command that Mr. Obama issued to staff: that his decision not leak out until supporters are notified.

Mr. Obama had not notified his choice — or any of those not selected — of his decision as of late Monday, advisers said. Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

Pretty much what we thought, Biden and Bayh.  It is still a little surprising to me that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is still on that list.  Kaine has no foreign policy experience and his selection would most assuredly hand over state power to the GOP.

Mr. Obama’s advisers said he reached his decision while on vacation in Hawaii. They said it marked the end of what proved to be an unexpectedly intense process, condensed because he did not want to start actively vetting potential running mates before Mrs. Clinton quit the race in June. By contrast, Mr. McCain, who had wrapped up the Republican nomination months earlier, began his process in late spring.

Pretty predictable.  Why else would Obama take an R and R right before the convention and right before the selection process, than to finally and completely settle on a choice.

Ok Over the weekend we had 4 State polls released and 3 of them are in Battleground States.  So lets get right to it shall we.

First up is the home of the Democratic Convention, Colorado, and a poll from Rocky Mountain News

Obama 41 McCain 44 Undecided/other 15 McCain +3

This state is going to be close all the way to the election.  No way to see how this is falling right now until after the conventions I would bet.  It remains a Tossup in the Presidential Projector.

Up next is Maine and a poll form Rasmussen

Obama 49 McCain 36 Undecided/other 15 Obama +13

One of the few races in the country where the polls are not tightening.  In fact it is going the opposite way.  This remains Strong Obama in our Presidential Projector.

We come to North Carolina and another poll from Rasmussen

Obama 42 McCain 46 Undecided/other 12 McCain +4

Though they are not enough for us to make a move, this is the fifth straight poll showing a small McCian lead.  For now it remains a Tossup in our Presidential Projector but it is tipping.

Last we have ground zero, Ohio, and a poll from PPP

Obama 45 McCain 45 Undecided/other 10 TIED!!!!

Typical of this state.  No one really knows where this is going.  This remains a Tossup in our Presidential Projector.

Well this is it for today,  Keep checking in for your State Daily Poll Fix and keep checking our Elections Projections Database for all your listings from around the web.

For the second straight month, Democrat Barack Obama far out distances John McBush McCain in fund raising.  Yesterday it was reported that McCain raised $27 million.  Meanwhile, Obama rakes in $51 million for the month of July.

So Obama out-raised McCain $51 million to $27 million.  Further, the DNC has reported a $27 million haul, compared to $26 million for the RNC, marking the first time this year the DNC out raised the RNC, not surprising though, given the DNC is now under the Obama campaign control.

So what is the cash on hand at this point?  Bloomberg reports that the Obama campaign has $65.8 million on hand while McCain has $21.4 million.  McCain must spend the $21.4 million before the GOP convention to receive the $84 million of public financing.  Obama opted out of public financing, opting instead to raise more than the $84 million from September through November.

Updated with a bunch of new projection sites and a bunch of updates over the past three days.  Even with eliminating some sites due to inactivity, we went from 62 projection sites to the current 68 projection sites.  We have not updated the bottom munch number just yet, but check out the database for the latest projections.

3BD Election Projection Mock Database

Senator Obama has new ad that is about to be released. The ad correctly criticizes Senator John McCain for his role in the DHL takeover that will probably cost thousands of jobs in Ohio and Delaware. Watch it.

A light state poll roundup tonight, just 3 lucky contestants but all Battleground States.  So lets get to it.

First up we have Colorado and a poll from Rasmussen

Obama 45 McCain 47 Undecided/other 8 McCain + 2

On the eve of the Democratic Convention this still remains close.  Will the convention give Obama a bounce in Colorado?  Only time will tell but for now we are keeping this as Tossup in our Presidential Projections.

Now we have the Minnesota and another poll from Rasmussen

Obama 46 McCain 42 Undecided/other 14 Obama +4

This is the second straight poll showing small single digit leads here in Minnesota.  This has to worry Obama and it is enough for us to move it back to Lean Obama from Strong Obama in our Presidential Projector.

Last we have Texas and a poll from UT Texas

Obama 33 McCain 43 Undecided/other 24 McCain +10

Anytime you see that large of an undecided it is a red flag in my mind.  Seems things are widening in Texas for McCain but it is going to remain Lean McCain in our Presidential Projector.

That is it for tonight.  Tomorrow we will see if Zogby releases his massive 50 state polling dump that could change the outcomes of several states, or perhaps not much will go at all.  You never know around here.  Keep checking in for your Daily State Poll Fix and keep checking our Elections Projections Databasefor all your projections from around the web.